Ali Fuat Orhonoğlu’s takeover of the YASED presidency is more than a leadership change at Türkiye’s main international investors’ association. It comes at a moment when Türkiye is trying to convert a cyclical rebound in foreign direct investment into a durable position in global supply chains, high technology production and regional services, while investors weigh the country’s improved policy dialogue against inflation, financing costs, carbon rules and geopolitical volatility.
A New YASED Presidency With a Policy Message
At YASED’s 45th Ordinary General Assembly in Istanbul on March 31, 2026, Orhonoğlu took over the chairmanship from Tolga Demirözü and said the association would continue working to make Türkiye more visible and higher ranked on the global investment map. The meeting brought together Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, Industry and Technology Minister Mehmet Fatih Kacır, and James X. Zhan, chairman of the executive board of the World Investment Conference and WAIPA, according to Unilever Türkiye’s release on the event.
The composition of the meeting matters. YASED is not a conventional business club. It is the main platform through which multinational companies operating in Türkiye raise operational and policy issues with the government. Its agenda usually reflects the practical bottlenecks that decide whether foreign investors expand existing plants, establish new companies, apply for incentives, or shift mandates to competing locations in Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa.
Orhonoğlu framed the period ahead as one in which countries are competing harder for production capacity and in which FDI is linked to productivity, development and integration with the global economy. He emphasized predictability, transparency and competitiveness in the investment environment, not only for attracting new investors but also for deepening the roots of companies already present in Türkiye.
That distinction is important for investors. In emerging markets, headline FDI numbers often rise because of one-off transactions, real estate inflows, or debt flows. Sustainable investment momentum usually depends on reinvestment by companies that already understand the local market. For prospective entrants, the YASED message points to a more consultative investment climate, but one in which success will still require careful market entry planning, incorporation choices, incentive mapping, legal and tax compliance, and sustained government relations.
Türkiye’s FDI Rebound Is Real, But Still Selective
Türkiye attracted $13.1 billion in FDI in 2025, a 12.2 percent year-on-year increase, according to the Presidency Investment and Finance Office, citing Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye balance of payments data. The same source said the Netherlands was the largest source country, with $2.863 billion, followed by Luxembourg with $1.164 billion and Kazakhstan with $1.138 billion. Germany, the United States, France, the UAE, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and Ireland were also among the main sources.
The sectoral split shows why the rebound is relevant to corporate investors. Wholesale and retail trade accounted for 32 percent of inflows, or about $3.052 billion, while manufacturing accounted for 31 percent, or $3.020 billion. Information and communication ranked third with 14 percent, or $1.308 billion, according to the Investment and Finance Office. Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said FDI excluding real estate reached $10.7 billion in 2025, the highest level in the past decade.
Early 2026 data are still partial and should be treated cautiously. Anadolu Agency reported, citing YASED, that Türkiye received $1.5 billion in FDI in January and February 2026, with Germany, the Netherlands and the UAE as the top three investing countries over that two-month period. Anadolu also reported that cumulative FDI inflows since 2003 had exceeded $289 billion.
The rebound sits inside a difficult global backdrop. UN Trade and Development’s World Investment Report 2026 said global FDI rose 6 percent to $1.6 trillion in 2025, but described the recovery as fragile and uneven. A Wall Street Journal report on the UN findings noted that strategic sectors, especially AI infrastructure and advanced technologies, have absorbed a much larger share of investment, while many developing economies face tougher competition for capital.
This is the context behind Orhonoğlu’s “global investment map” language. Türkiye is not merely competing for general emerging-market capital. It is competing for a narrower pool of projects linked to digital infrastructure, low-carbon manufacturing, regional supply-chain resilience and high-end services. For investors, that means location strategy must be benchmarked not only against local costs, but also against Türkiye’s access to Europe, incentives, customs rules, workforce depth, carbon exposure and aftercare from public authorities.
The Strategic Pitch: Supply Chains, EU Access and Quality FDI
Türkiye’s formal investment strategy is already aligned with this shift. The Türkiye Foreign Direct Investment Strategy for 2024-2028, published by the Investment Office, aims to raise Türkiye’s share of global FDI flows to 1.5 percent by 2028 and to capture 12 percent of FDI flows into the CEEMENA region. It defines quality FDI across profiles such as climate FDI, digital FDI, global value chain related FDI, knowledge-intensive FDI, high-quality job generating FDI, high-end services, high-quality financial FDI and regional development oriented FDI.
That strategy matches the issues raised at the YASED assembly. Demirözü pointed to progress in 5G, emissions trading, renewable energy investment, the new incentive system and GDPR alignment. Kacır highlighted new incentive mechanisms, programs for high technology and strategic investments, and policies focused on digital and green transformation.
Türkiye’s trade position gives those policies commercial weight. The European Commission says the EU-Türkiye Customs Union, in force since January 1, 1996, helped bilateral goods trade reach more than 217.6 billion euros in 2025. The Commission also says Türkiye was the EU’s fifth-largest goods trade partner in 2025, representing 4.2 percent of the EU’s total goods trade, while 42.7 percent of Türkiye’s exports went to the EU and 35.3 percent of its imports came from the EU.
For foreign manufacturers, this makes Türkiye a potential platform for serving Europe, the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia. The attraction is strongest where investors need a combination of industrial capability, customs access, supplier networks and regional logistics. But the opportunity is not automatic. Customs Union benefits do not remove the need to manage rules of origin, product standards, customs procedures, sanctions screening, technical regulations, import licensing, VAT treatment, transfer pricing, labor rules and sector-specific permits.
That is where advisory work becomes operational rather than promotional. Market entry analysis determines whether Türkiye should be a sales hub, assembly base, full manufacturing site, regional headquarters, procurement platform or joint venture location. Incorporation and corporate structuring decide how the investment is held, financed and governed. Import-export facilitation matters because a Turkey-based operation often depends on cross-border flows of intermediate goods, machinery and finished products.
Macro Stability Is Improving, But Not Yet Easy
The investment case is also shaped by macroeconomic conditions. The IMF’s country page for Türkiye, updated with July 2026 World Economic Outlook data, projects 2.9 percent real GDP growth and 28.6 percent consumer price inflation in 2026. ING Think, citing TurkStat data, said Türkiye’s economy grew 2.5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, below the market consensus of 2.7 percent, with net exports acting as a drag and growth momentum softening.
Monetary policy remains restrictive. Trading Economics, citing the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, reported that the benchmark rate was held at 37 percent in July 2026, with the central bank pointing to inflation risks even as domestic demand slows. For investors, this affects working capital, local borrowing costs, lease negotiations, supplier credit and the timing of capital expenditure.
The trade balance also remains a pressure point. Trading Economics, citing TurkStat, reported that Türkiye’s trade deficit widened to $10.4 billion in June 2026 as imports rose faster than exports, with the first-half deficit reaching $53.1 billion. That is not necessarily negative for FDI, because capital-goods imports can reflect investment activity, but it does highlight exchange-rate and financing risks for import-heavy projects.
These macro factors make legal and tax compliance more than a back-office issue. Foreign investors need to plan for inflation accounting, foreign-currency contracts, withholding tax, customs valuation, local payroll obligations, social security rules, related-party financing, profit repatriation and potential changes in tax administration. They also need government relations capacity when regulatory interpretation is unclear or when sector permits involve multiple ministries and agencies.
Green and Digital Rules Are Becoming Investment Criteria
The most important medium-term change may be regulatory, not macroeconomic. Türkiye’s first Climate Law was adopted by the Grand National Assembly on July 2, 2025 and published in the Official Gazette on July 9, according to the International Carbon Action Partnership. ICAP said the law establishes the legal basis for a national emissions trading system, creates a Carbon Market Board and assigns day-to-day ETS management to the Directorate of Climate Change.
For investors in cement, steel, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity-intensive activities, automotive supply chains and other carbon-exposed sectors, this changes the investment model. The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism already forces exporters to account for embedded emissions in selected products. Türkiye’s ETS may eventually reduce carbon-border exposure if it becomes robust and recognized, but in the transition period companies must manage both Turkish rules and EU customer requirements.
The practical implication is that incentives and compliance need to be assessed together. A project may qualify for investment incentives under a regional, strategic, high-technology or green transformation framework, yet still face carbon reporting costs, grid connection constraints, environmental permitting, energy procurement questions and supplier audit requirements from European buyers. Incentives support is therefore not simply about obtaining a certificate. It requires structuring the project so that tax, customs, land, employment, R&D, energy and environmental elements work together.
Digital regulation is moving in the same direction. Demirözü’s reference to GDPR alignment, cloud computing, cybersecurity, AI and data centers reflects the next stage of investor scrutiny. A foreign company entering Türkiye in retail, fintech, health, logistics, software, e-commerce or industrial automation must understand personal data transfer rules, cybersecurity duties, cloud architecture choices, sector licensing and contractual liability with Turkish customers and public institutions.
What This Means for Foreign Investors
Orhonoğlu’s YASED presidency signals that Türkiye wants to compete for higher-quality foreign investment by combining policy dialogue, incentives, EU-linked trade access and a more targeted national FDI strategy. The opportunity is credible, especially in manufacturing, logistics, digital services, renewable energy, consumer markets and regional headquarters functions. But the execution burden on investors is substantial.
A foreign investor acting on this development would need to start with market entry work that tests demand, competitors, import dependence, customer concentration and route-to-market options. It would then need incorporation and corporate structuring decisions that fit ownership, financing, governance and repatriation needs. Incentives analysis would have to identify national, regional, sectoral and high-technology support mechanisms before capital expenditure is locked in.
Legal and tax compliance would need to cover employment, contracts, data, customs, carbon reporting, transfer pricing and sector permits. Government relations would matter where investment approvals, land, energy, incentives, standards or public agencies are central to the project. Expo representation may help companies test demand and partnerships before committing capital, while import-export facilitation becomes critical for projects tied to Europe-facing supply chains. Project management is the final test, because incentives, permits, suppliers, construction, hiring and launch timelines have to be coordinated on the ground.
Türkiye’s investment story is moving in the right direction, but it is not a simple low-cost entry story. It is a more complex proposition: a large domestic market, a strategic production base and a policy system trying to adapt to green, digital and geopolitical competition. Investors that treat that complexity as a planning requirement, rather than an afterthought, will be better placed to turn Türkiye’s renewed FDI momentum into bankable projects.